2021 Power Plan Mid-Term Assessment

Summary

Updated February 2024

The Council’s Adequacy Assessment for 2027 (released January 2023) highlighted that “the region will need to develop resources at least as aggressively as the 2021 Power Plan outlines.” Based on data collected to date, the region is generally on pace to acquire these resources (see side bar). Despite this promising resource development, the Council has identified some potential risk areas for resource adequacy: anticipated large industrial load growth and ensuring sufficient operating reserves. The Council is still analyzing these risks, including developing updated load forecasts and a new adequacy assessment. The Council will report the findings of these efforts and provide any updated recommendations to the region.

The region has already developed around 90 percent of the minimum renewable build called for by the power plan and is on pace to achieve the cost-effective efficiency identified in the plan. Bonneville is currently on track with its energy efficiency acquisition, but it will need to increase future savings to stay on target. Utilities in the region are demonstrating, developing, and running demand response programs that meet their local needs. However, the Council continues to see more potential in products that would support the region’s need for flexibility.

This resource acquisition should be evaluated in concert with the region’s strategy for operational reserves. While the long-term picture looks promising, with support from the Western Resource Adequacy Program and a potential day-ahead market (or two), the near-term is more uncertain. The Council found that the most cost-effective way to meet reserves requirements was to be more conservative with the existing system, holding back resources and ensuring that they are available if needed. Some entities are operating their systems more conservatively, while others are relying more on the market (or a combination of the two). The 2021 Power Plan identified market reliance as an effective, albeit riskier, method for ensuring sufficient reserves.

There are other factors mitigating the near-term risk in reserves. For one, the West-wide development of renewables is happening at a slower pace than assumed in the plan’s analysis, which slightly reduces the reserve need. Second, the Council also found that additional energy efficiency was an effective, albeit more expensive, way of achieving reserves. The early data suggests that the region might be on track to acquire more energy efficiency than recommended in the power plan.

Despite early data indicating that the region is on track to implement the 2021 Power Plan strategy, some risk remains. The Adequacy Assessment for 2027 also notes that adequacy issues increase with significant load growth or retiring resources without replacement generation.

The risk of early resource retirement is low, as utilities have either delayed planned coal retirements or indicated plans to convert those units to gas. There is risk on the demand side, however. The Council has been actively tracking others’ load forecasting efforts, several of which have identified significant, near-term load growth, specifically in the industrial sector, and data centers and chip manufacturing in particular. The 2021 Power Plan recognized that more renewables and the related reserves would be needed in a high-load future. It also noted that additional energy efficiency is likely cost-effective in jurisdictions pursuing electrification policies, suggesting that other added loads might also warrant a higher level of efficiency.

The Council continues to monitor whether the current resource investment, combined with delayed retirements and coal-to-gas conversions, are sufficient to mitigate the risk of this potential load growth. The Council expects to have a new load forecast in Q2 of 2024, which will provide important insight on both near-term load growth and long-term trends. This, coupled with the upcoming (Q3 of 2024) adequacy assessment will allow the Council to update recommendations to the region as it continues to work to ensure an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply.