Natural gas, coal, and oil are the primary fossil fuels used in the region. The work at the Council covers many aspects of the fossil fuels used in the region, including price forecasting, infrastructure analysis, and greenhouse gas emission studies. The resulting forecasts and analyses inform many of the Council’s power planning processes and models.
For the 2021 Power Plan, much of our effort is concentrated on natural gas. Gas plays a big role in the Northwest as a fuel for homes, business, and industrial processes. Gas-fired power generation plants have become a key fixture for the electricity grid, providing both baseline and peaking power, as well as providing renewable power integration. With the retirements of coal across the West, the grid is increasingly becoming reliant on gas fired power, particularly in low hydro years and for the evening load ramp.
There was a major overhaul of the analytic tools related to fuels for this power plan. In addition to tool redevelopment, several completely new fuel models were created to support the 2021 Power Plan. Also, for the first time, the power plan will include upstream methane emission rates resulting from natural gas and coal extraction and transportation, and an end-use natural gas consumption forecast.
The top sections in the list of contents at the right cover natural gas pricing; including infrastructure and supply analysis, hub price forecasts, delivered and fixed fuel costs, and price volatility. Below that you will find the sections on coal, oil, and renewable natural gas plus the end-use gas consumption forecast and section on upstream methane.
Many of the data sets, tools and models are available for reference here.