Growing Summer Energy Demand

One of the interesting trends noted in the Council's Sixth Power Plan was the region's shift from a winter-peaking power system to summer-peaking. This is happening primarily because more homes use air conditioning.

Among other things, Northwest energy planners consider three things to make sure we will have enough electricity:

• the management of our "fuel"--the water stored behind the dams


• winter and summer hourly needs


• resources that can be turned on or off as needed

According to John Fazio, senior power systems analyst, the latest assessment showed that the region would be on the cusp of not having enough resources by 2015 to meet the anticipated increase in summer-peak demand.

"When we see we're that close to a shortfall, we review our data and our methodology to make sure it's accurate and that we're not missing anything," says Fazio.

According to Fazio, the summer problem is getting worse. Air conditioning is more common these days, and while summer peaks in electricity use are not as high as winter peaks, there's less power available in the summer. River flow is lower and spill requirements for fish reduces electricity generation as well. Reserve requirements for wind power also take a toll on the hydrosystem.

"Summer is a peak time for energy use in the Southwest, which means we're not likely to import power from California," says Fazio.

Finally, there is the impact of climate change to consider. Warmer temperatures over the long term--say 20 years and beyond--will decrease demand in winter but increase it in the summer, exacerbating an already worrying trend.

"It's a real shift for energy planners," says Fazio. "We're just not used to thinking about summer problems in the Pacific Northwest; but that's the growing reality."