Scenario Analysis Is Coming!

As a planning agency, the Council is obsessed with the future. Although it is impossible to predict it, the Council endeavors to prepare the region with knowledge and tools that can be economically and efficiently employed to ensure that our electricity supply remains inexpensive, adequate, clean, and reliable.

One important phase in the development of the Council’s Seventh Northwest Power Plan is the modeling of future energy scenarios using the regional portfolio model. We will use the model to analyze various scenarios and assess the likely implications for energy loads and supply, prices, and environmental impacts.

There are myriad questions and predictions swirling around the region regarding the future structure and function of our energy system. What would a low carbon or carbon-free future look like and how much would it cost? How will California’s continued expansion of renewable energy affect the Northwest? How much cost- effective energy efficiency is available over the next 20 years and how fast can it be acquired? Will solar energy become a more important resource for the Northwest? These and other questions may be examined during this phase of the development of the Seventh Northwest Power Plan.

The Council’s power committee will begin discussing scenario analysis at its February and March meetings in Portland and Eugene, respectively. We are also expecting a robust discussion at the Resource Strategies Advisory Committee meeting on March 12 in Portland where regional stakeholders will have an opportunity to suggest and shape possible scenarios for modeling. Selected results of the scenario modeling are expected to be available for public review on our website as the draft plan is developed. Ultimately, all the results of the scenario analysis, as well as other analysis, will be available when the draft plan is released in late summer or fall.