Update on Redeveloping the Regional Portfolio Model

The Council's regional portfolio model is the primary tool it uses to compare the cost and risk of alternate resource strategies. It has been under redevelopment for the past several months to update its software and improve its transparency.

At the Council's power committee meeting in January, staff reviewed the key data inputs, assumptions, and model logic that most significantly influence the model's results. These include things like forecasts for the potential range of future electricity and natural gas prices, load growth, and hydro generation. They also include policy assumptions about future conditions such as the price or limits on carbon emissions. The model's internal logic can also significantly influence its results through alternative decision rules to ensure that the region has adequate resources to meet its energy and capacity needs, as well as sufficient renewable resource construction to satisfy RPS goals.

The staff will continue to identify the "big knob" inputs as the regional portfolio model's redevelopment progresses. The January presentation helped set the stage for the next discussions of the Council's scenario analysis in February and March. The redeveloped regional portfolio model is scheduled to be ready to use in March, so get set to provide your comments on this critical phase in planning our energy future.